2030 EUA Price Predictions: Expert Analysis of 3 Scenarios

What is the carbon allowance price forecast for 2030? All expert surveys point to higher prices, but the scale of the increase will depend on several factors. Industrial production volumes play a central role: if manufacturing activity continues to recover, rising EUA demand will push prices higher. European gas market dynamics remain important to watch, given their historically strong correlation with carbon prices. Above all, 2026 marks the beginning of structural supply tightening in the EU ETS, reinforced by the entry into force of CBAM and the institutional support reaffirmed at the highest European level.

What affects EUA prices in the short term?

EUA prices depend on several interconnected factors. Energy markets are significant, as they influence industrial energy consumption and, in turn, carbon emission levels and anticipated allowance demand. Weather conditions also play a role: mild winters reduce heating needs, lowering emissions and EUA demand. Market participant behaviour, industrial activity levels and regulatory announcements all contribute to shaping carbon prices in the near term.

The EUA spot price stood at €69.99 on 7 April 2026, following an 8% rally in the wake of the Brussels Summit on 19-20 March. This rebound reflects the return of investor confidence in the European carbon price signal, after a period of volatility driven by the geopolitical context. With the temporary supply effects of RepowerEU now behind us, structural fundamentals are reasserting themselves.

Can EUAs be traded with a short-term investment horizon?

Carbon allowance prices share characteristics with commodities, and significant price swings are normal. A very short-term investment horizon is therefore generally not well suited to retail investors in this market. EUAs are designed for price appreciation over the medium and long term: as a climate policy instrument, rising prices incentivise industries to cut emissions while generating revenue for member states. An investment horizon targeting 2030 is particularly relevant from 2026 onwards, as structural catalysts continue to accumulate.

EU ETS price forecasts for 2030: three scenarios

Scenario 1: Industrial rebound and rising EUA demand

European industry has operated at subdued levels since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, weighing on EUA demand and prices. With macroeconomic conditions stabilising and the ECB rate-cutting cycle underway since 2024, a gradual recovery in manufacturing activity is expected through 2026. This rebound will mechanically increase compliance demand. Financial investors, anticipating this dynamic, will build positions in EUAs pre-emptively. This dual pressure could drive carbon prices up by at least 20% in the near term, reinforcing the trajectory toward 2030 price targets.

Notably, at the Brussels Summit, more than 100 European companies mobilised to defend the integrity of the carbon market, highlighting regulatory stability as their strategic priority. A strong signal of private sector commitment to the decarbonisation trajectory.

Scenario 2: Gas market tensions and their impact on EUA prices

Gas prices have a direct influence on carbon prices: when gas is expensive, industries tend to switch to coal, generating more emissions and increasing EUA demand. This correlation remains structural.

European gas markets remain vulnerable to supply disruptions and winter demand spikes. ABN Amro notes that a shortfall in wind and solar output would act as an additional bullish catalyst for EUAs. A gas price spike would amplify upward pressure on carbon allowances, supporting the trajectory toward Citi's forecast of €145 by 2030 and €200 by 2035.

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Scenario 3: EU ETS supply reduction and CBAM, the structural drivers through 2030

This is the most predictable and most powerful factor. 2026 marks precisely the moment when the full effects of regulatory tightening begin to materialise, with two major developments in recent weeks.

On 7 April 2026, the European Commission published the first official quarterly CBAM certificate price: €75.36/tCO2. This is a historic milestone: the world's first carbon border tax value. CBAM entered fully into force on 1 January 2026, following two years of transition without financial obligations. It covers six key sectors: steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity. By placing a carbon price at the EU's borders, this mechanism eliminates carbon leakage risks and strengthens the integrity of the EU ETS price signal. CBAM certificates will be purchasable from February 2027 through the Central Common Platform.

At the Brussels Summit on 19-20 March 2026, the European Council reaffirmed the central role of the EU ETS: no member state supported the idea of suspending the market. A €30 billion industrial decarbonisation fund was announced, financed by the monetisation of 400 million EUA allowances, implying a value of €75 per tonne. The Market Stability Reserve will also see its intervention capacity increased to limit excessive price volatility. The extension of free allocations beyond 2034 provides a more predictable transition framework for the most exposed sectors.

The Fit for 55 reform completes the picture: the Linear Reduction Factor has been raised to 4.3% per year since 2024 and will reach 4.4% from 2028, with EUA auctions to be progressively phased out by 2039. Deutsche Bank confirms this view: from 2026 onwards, the EU ETS will tighten considerably as front-loaded auctions end, CBAM is fully implemented and emission caps are further tightened.

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What experts forecast for EUA prices in 2030

Major financial institutions are converging on bullish forecasts. ABN Amro forecast €95 per tonne by end-2025. Citi, using Bloomberg's carbon pricing model, sets its base-case at €145 per tonne of CO2 by 2030, with a projection of €200 per tonne by 2035, driven primarily by the ongoing reduction in allowance supply and a declining TNAC. The fact that the European Commission itself calibrated its decarbonisation fund on a value of €75 per tonne sends a stability signal to investors and industry alike, consistent with a bullish long-term trajectory.

These forecasts remain conditional on the outcome of the regulatory review expected in Q3 2026. The structural fundamentals, however, remain intact: allowance supply is declining mechanically each year, free allocations are being phased out progressively between 2026 and 2034, and new sectors are joining the system. The trajectory remains firmly oriented upward.

Key takeaways

The EUA spot price stood at €69.99 on 7 April 2026, following an 8% rebound post-Brussels Summit. CBAM entered into force on 1 January 2026 with a first official price of €75.36/tCO2. Citi forecasts €145 by 2030 and €200 by 2035, forecasts that remain conditional on the outcome of the Q3 2026 regulatory review. Institutional support at the highest European level, structural supply reduction and the full rollout of CBAM are the primary bullish drivers. For patient, long-term investors, EUAs represent a conviction asset at the intersection of climate impact and financial performance.