Can EUAs disappear? 5 reasons the carbon market is here to stay
We are often asked: what if Europe decided to stop the carbon market? Here are 5 reasons why this scenario, while theoretically possible, is in practice highly unlikely.
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On 7 April 2026, Europe reached an unprecedented milestone in the history of global climate policy: the European Commission published the first official price under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set at €75.36 per tonne of CO₂. It is the world's first operational carbon border price.
On Tuesday 7 April 2026, the European Commission published the first official quarterly price for CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or MACF in French) certificates: €75.36 per tonne of CO₂. The date is historic: it marks the first publication of a carbon cost at the border of the European Union, and the first carbon border price ever set by a major economic power.
By setting a carbon price at its borders, Europe is sending a clear signal to its trading partners: the CO₂ emissions embedded in imported products now carry a cost. This price is directly indexed to the European carbon market (EU ETS), whose allowance price moves continuously on energy markets. For reference, the EU allowance spot price closed at €69.99 on 7 April 2026.
CBAM is a European mechanism that requires importers of certain carbon-intensive products to pay for the CO₂ emissions embedded in their goods. It is designed as the mirror of the European carbon market (EU ETS): any importer that benefits from a competitive advantage due to the absence of carbon pricing in their country of origin must compensate for that gap at the EU border.
Having entered fully into force on 1 January 2026, after a two-year transition phase with no financial obligations, it covers six sectors: steel and iron, cement, fertilisers, aluminium, hydrogen, and electricity.
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This first price of €75.36/tCO₂ is calculated as the average of EU ETS auction prices over the first quarter of 2026. It determines the value of CBAM certificates that covered European importers will need to purchase. These certificates will be available from February 2027 through the Central Clearing Platform (CCP), for which the tender process has just been launched.
The next reference price will be published on 6 July 2026. From 2027 onwards, the Commission will publish a weekly price, reflecting the mechanism's gradual ramp-up.
CBAM addresses two fundamental challenges. The first is environmental: preventing "carbon leakage", meaning the relocation of European industrial production to countries with no carbon constraints, which would undermine Europe's entire climate effort. The second is economic: restoring a level playing field between European industries, which are subject to the carbon market's price signal, and foreign importers who until now were exempt.
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Its entry into force is directly linked to the progressive phase-out of free allocations under the EU ETS. These allowances, granted at no cost to emissions-intensive industries to shield them from international competition, are being withdrawn as CBAM scales up. The expected result: a stronger carbon price signal across all emissions, and an acceleration of decarbonisation trajectories and the energy transition.
Beyond its climate objectives, CBAM generates significant revenues for the European Union, enabling it to continue funding its energy security, industrial competitiveness, and technological innovation. The mechanism sits at the intersection of trade policy, industrial competitiveness, energy sovereignty, and geopolitics.
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CBAM structurally reinforces demand for EU ETS allowances and supports the long-term credibility of the European carbon market. By extending the logic of carbon pricing to imports, it reduces the carbon leakage risk that had weighed on the integrity of the system. For investors exposed to European Union Allowances (EUAs), this mechanism is a positive signal for the robustness and durability of the European carbon market.
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