In this edition, explore the how far European member states are from fulfilling their climate promises. Commitments, which were initially shaky to begin with.
Compliance carbon markets made easy by Homaio.
In this edition :
1. The Story : What is worse than a government not respecting climate targets? A government not respecting ineffective climate targets.
2. The Blog : Brush up your knowledge before christmas - read our latest articles to be on top of everything in Climate Finance.
3. Carbon Markets : Get updated on where the carbon investments that you have (or wish you had) currently stand.
4. Keeping up with Homaio: See what has been baking this month.
Our climate promises are falling short, and the big question looms: Will the EU meet its 2030 climate targets? Realistically not. According to the recent report from the European Environment Agency, it's a 'maybe no' for 15 out of the 28 major commitments, and a resounding 'hard no' for 5 others.
This document is more than just another paper with depressing numbers. The broader message transmitted is that countries make abstract promises that they never follow. They do not even care to pretend to do so.
In short, Member States should come up with “National Plans”. In these plans, they are supposed to outline how they will contribute to the European Union reaching its climate targets.
Those national plans are inadequate and lack ambition.
- Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, Italy and the Netherlands are failing to meet their share of the bloc’s 2030 target to cut emissions by at least 55% under 1990 levels.
- Cyprus, Slovenia, and Slovakia are not meeting their renewable energy production requirements.
- Estonia, where carbon-intensive oil shale is the main fossil fuel, will remain its oil production unchanged until 2030.
But it goes deeper. 11 out of the 27 member states did not even bother to submit their updated National Plans on time. The 16 champions who managed to do the paperwork within the deadlines were: Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, FInland, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.
Okay, governments are bad with promises, but how are they doing with climate action itself? Just as badly. Here is an “expectations” vs “reality” recap:
There is, unfortunately, a long history of public policy failure regarding climate change. This is especially concerning as it is a global, civilizational challenge that can only be effectively tackled at a national or supranational level. Learning about it, intensifying public scrutiny, makes us collectively more effective to face our common challenges. It strengthens our democracies and societies. And that’s why the Homing Bird will keep shining a light on the shortcomings of those that govern us.
In the meantime, there are a lot of ways we can usher meaningful change. How we vote for example. Or how we distribute capital. That’s the core of our mission at Homaio: to give you access to investment opportunities that have a real impact on emissions.
Enough with the words in the wind.
Go further and expand your knowledge through Homaio’s periodically published articles. You do not need to be an expert on the topic - this blog simply offers the opportunity to strengthen your understanding.
Meet the original carbon markets guru - an expert economist who writes about carbon for a living at Carbon Risk (carbonrisk.substack.com).
The EU is expanding the ETS to include maritime transport, but the financial impact is expected to be limited, with questionable effects on decarbonization.
EUA prices kept decreasing for almost all of last month, reaching a 13 month low.. They went from €76.57 on November 20th, to as low as €66.20 on December 18th. The prices have been grinding back up this week, settling around 73€ as I write.
- Energy markets: The correlation between EUAs and Gas reached 0.99 (it is almost perfect!), and gas prices were falling. The benchmark gas prices were at €75.8 on November 20th, and dropped to €32.7 by December 18th. The drop was due to low demand and high supply. warm winter reduced the need for heating while industrial demand was weak. Indeed, recent data showed that European Industrial Production has fallen by 0.7% since last month (vs. an expectation of a 0.3% decrease). In parallel, gas reserves remained unseasonablys high, with strong energy production from renewables and stable supply lines.
- EUA market specifics: There is a pause in the auction calendar, so no new allowances are brought to the market: the EUA supply is on Christmas break from the 18th of December for at least 3 weeks. This makes prices more sensible to demand and supply dynamics - they are likely to increase more sharply than usual.
-Gas markets: Prices were falling until recently because of a comfortable supply - the European Storage levels are sufficient (91% mid-December). However, they increased quickly after BP announced this Monday that they will be suspending shipments through the Red Sea. In response, gas prices gained 13% intraday, under the supply threat. Gas prices and EUAs being related, this explained part of the EUA rally.
What to be on the lookout for? Festive mood and good food, but also weather, industrial activity and legislation. The markets will be quite muted in the days to come and it will be interesting to see if EUAs stop following gas levels that closely. There is a lot of exciting news to come in EUA markets in 2024 - a new compliance calendar, new EU climate target announcements… Let’s see how the behavior of actors anticipating market movements affect EUA prices.
What's new with Homaio
Samuel, our Founder Associate, has joined the team. He is incredible at juggling between his demanding engineering degree at ENSTA Paris, his numerous extracurricular activities, and delivering great value for Homaio.
We continued to onboard new investors, expanding our holdings of European Allowances. We also launched our direct-investment platform to track environmental and financial performance.
We hosted our first dinner for young professionals in carbon markets. In an intimate setting in the heart of Paris, we welcomed participants from all over Europe to share views on carbon markets. Think you should attend ? Email me at monna@homaio.com.
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